1. the world we think we know

1944 - birth of world bank, IMF, international bank for reconstruction and development

2. egypt - the art of getting from here to there

rivers are basically everything
- even today it is much harder to transport without a river
civilizations want easy transportation within the civ. but strong borders
- egypt had this to the extreme
  - they become very isolated
  - they had slavery
  - they didn’t have much technological innovation and were conquered

America has drmatically more rivers than the rest of the world combined
- also has barrier islands that make the coast navigable
- has more port access than anywhere else
has no serious threats to military
- insulated

after WWII everyone was destroyed except US
many were expecting a Pax Americana at Bretton Woods conference
- America is not well-positioned for occupation
- maritime forces are better at fighting and leaving
instead Bretton Woods offers essentially a bribe
1. access to the American market
2. protection for all shipping
3. strategic umbrella - other countries agree to support US against iron curtain
needed China to get on board
- China was facing tensions with Soviet Union
- China US relations were bad
- 1971 ping-pong world championships US player mistakenly gets on Chinese Bus
  - they exchange gifts and get famous
  - China invites US to play some exhibition matches
  - follows into real politics
this system made sense for US during cold war, but no longer makes sense
- America will likely soon stop paying for this

population pyramids should be wider at bottom
- after baby boomers too many at top
people in 40s-50s provide most capital to countries
- this is important for economy
- they invest their money
old people are biggest drain on system (draw pensions, withdraw money from investments)
children are also big burden on system
young people (20-40) drive consumer growth

fracking
- most petroleum was in wells but most is in porous rocks called shale
  1. horizontal drilling - allows for bypassing things
  2. hydraulic fracturing - uses water pressure to crack rock
this helps the US more than anyone else
1. requires huge, deep capital markets
2. highly skilled labor
3. legal structure that rewards landowners for their participation
4. preexisting natural gas collection, transport, and distribution infrastructure
US benefits
- jobs
- decreased emmissions
- lower prices
- less foreign dependence
3-D printers can revolutionize with cheap electricity

US remains relatively unaffected when Bretton woods goes out
major problems facing the US
1. cartels from Mexico becoming established in the US
2. climate change
3. nuclear prliferation
Germany must remain aggressive
Russia state failure is imminent
China cannot survive in the long-term